Those estimates do start at RE-Bench, but these are all estimates for how long things would take given the “default” pace of progress, rather than the actual calendar time required. Adding them together ends up with a result that doesn’t take into account speedup from AI R&D automation or the slowdown in compute and algorithmic labor growth after 2028.
Sure – I was presenting these as “human-only, software-only” estimates:
Here are the median estimates of the “human-only, software-only” time needed to reach each milestone:
Saturating RE-Bench → Superhuman coder: three sets of estimates are presented, with medians summing to between 30 and 75 months[6]. The reasoning is presented here.
Those estimates do start at RE-Bench, but these are all estimates for how long things would take given the “default” pace of progress, rather than the actual calendar time required. Adding them together ends up with a result that doesn’t take into account speedup from AI R&D automation or the slowdown in compute and algorithmic labor growth after 2028.
Sure – I was presenting these as “human-only, software-only” estimates:
So it doesn’t seem like there’s a problem here?
Ah right, my bad, I was confused. This is right except that these estimates aren’t software-only, they include recent levels of compute scaling.
Thanks, I’ve edited the post to note this.