Sure – I was presenting these as “human-only, software-only” estimates:
Here are the median estimates of the “human-only, software-only” time needed to reach each milestone:
Saturating RE-Bench → Superhuman coder: three sets of estimates are presented, with medians summing to between 30 and 75 months[6]. The reasoning is presented here.
Sure – I was presenting these as “human-only, software-only” estimates:
So it doesn’t seem like there’s a problem here?
Ah right, my bad, I was confused. This is right except that these estimates aren’t software-only, they include recent levels of compute scaling.
Thanks, I’ve edited the post to note this.