Testing new predictions is great and all, and it may be a Dark Side thing to do to recklessly state beliefs that haven’t had new predictions tested, but it’s not necessary to come up with new predictions.
If you are good at estimating the algorithmic complexity of a theory, and it’s significantly less than the data it explains, it’s most likely right. The only reason new predictions are favored over old ones is that you can’t cheat with a complex theory that over fits the data.
True. But now you’re talking about theories which make entirely the same predictions as old ones, and are simply more elegant or simple versions of the old theories. Those are a separate case, one that I wasn’t talking about.
Testing new predictions is great and all, and it may be a Dark Side thing to do to recklessly state beliefs that haven’t had new predictions tested, but it’s not necessary to come up with new predictions.
If you are good at estimating the algorithmic complexity of a theory, and it’s significantly less than the data it explains, it’s most likely right. The only reason new predictions are favored over old ones is that you can’t cheat with a complex theory that over fits the data.
see Einsteins arrogance
True. But now you’re talking about theories which make entirely the same predictions as old ones, and are simply more elegant or simple versions of the old theories. Those are a separate case, one that I wasn’t talking about.