Maybe it could raise interest rates, but I also have TLT (long dated treasury bonds) put options for this possibility. TLT has a duration of ~16 years, so if the interest rate goes from 4.9% to 15%, TLT will crash by ~65%. Also, when full automation actually happens, stocks will go up even if they went down slightly due to expectations of automation.
I had a bit of the same reaction (logic being many loose their jobs, income craters, good demand craters, corp earning crater stock price higher????). But I kind of see it from a I don’t have a good handle on AI and equity market levels in the future so maybe stick to a strategy that historically makes sense.
I would only add some slight shifts to the suggestion. While it is also an open question for the average investor as to buy-hold versus timing the market works well, I do think most here can think though well enough to consider timing for the option allocation. Simple mean-reversion type entry points might increase the odd tempered by where one things the overall market is in the cycle.
Is this true?
It has been claimed:
Prior discussion: Tail SP 500 Call Options.
I currently have 7% of my portfolio in such calls.
Maybe it could raise interest rates, but I also have TLT (long dated treasury bonds) put options for this possibility. TLT has a duration of ~16 years, so if the interest rate goes from 4.9% to 15%, TLT will crash by ~65%. Also, when full automation actually happens, stocks will go up even if they went down slightly due to expectations of automation.
I had a bit of the same reaction (logic being many loose their jobs, income craters, good demand craters, corp earning crater stock price higher????). But I kind of see it from a I don’t have a good handle on AI and equity market levels in the future so maybe stick to a strategy that historically makes sense.
I would only add some slight shifts to the suggestion. While it is also an open question for the average investor as to buy-hold versus timing the market works well, I do think most here can think though well enough to consider timing for the option allocation. Simple mean-reversion type entry points might increase the odd tempered by where one things the overall market is in the cycle.