Ah, confusing. Looks like Ben’s comment quotes a post by Holden from 15th Dec which in turn quotes a different post by Holden from 22nd Aug, which is where the original statement about takeover odds appears.
Both posts are hyperlinked in the comment and I had clicked the latter link without noticing, but in any case yes, seems like the original statement is from pre-ChatGPT.
Edit: just realised Ben had already commented to the same effect below.
Is it? The date on the linked post is 29th Aug 2022, but ChatGPT was November or December.
Huh, it says Dec 15th for me? Like, right at the top?
Yeah but in the quote it links to his original statement on August 29th on LessWrong.
(I quoted the slightly later version on Cold Takes because it expands it from the original context to be a general statement.)
Ah, in that case, yes, seems like decent-ish data!
Ah, confusing. Looks like Ben’s comment quotes a post by Holden from 15th Dec which in turn quotes a different post by Holden from 22nd Aug, which is where the original statement about takeover odds appears.
Both posts are hyperlinked in the comment and I had clicked the latter link without noticing, but in any case yes, seems like the original statement is from pre-ChatGPT.
Edit: just realised Ben had already commented to the same effect below.