Tons of small improvements can make big changes to performance, in a way that I did not think they would be able to. Or at least, not so soon. If there was just one change they made and it resulted in the same performance increase, I’d say that is way more Eliezer verse.
Paul seems down with progress being potentially quite fast. I’d be willing to bet he thinks a takeoff in 15 years is on the cusp of plausibility. I agree that the speed is maybe more Eliezer verse, but how it happened is more Paulverse. So I’d guess l(AlphaCode|Paulverse)>l(AlphaCode|Eliezerverse). But I don’t understand Eliezerverse enough to be confident about the numerical value of the likelihoods.
In which way does this news “favour Paul-verse”?
Tons of small improvements can make big changes to performance, in a way that I did not think they would be able to. Or at least, not so soon. If there was just one change they made and it resulted in the same performance increase, I’d say that is way more Eliezer verse.
Huh. Doesn’t this also push towards faster progress and thus faster takeoff though, and thus Eliezer-verse?
Paul seems down with progress being potentially quite fast. I’d be willing to bet he thinks a takeoff in 15 years is on the cusp of plausibility. I agree that the speed is maybe more Eliezer verse, but how it happened is more Paulverse. So I’d guess l(AlphaCode|Paulverse)>l(AlphaCode|Eliezerverse). But I don’t understand Eliezerverse enough to be confident about the numerical value of the likelihoods.
Idk. At this point I want to taboo “Paul-verse” and “Eliezer-verse” and use more specific, descriptive terms instead.