Paul seems down with progress being potentially quite fast. I’d be willing to bet he thinks a takeoff in 15 years is on the cusp of plausibility. I agree that the speed is maybe more Eliezer verse, but how it happened is more Paulverse. So I’d guess l(AlphaCode|Paulverse)>l(AlphaCode|Eliezerverse). But I don’t understand Eliezerverse enough to be confident about the numerical value of the likelihoods.
Paul seems down with progress being potentially quite fast. I’d be willing to bet he thinks a takeoff in 15 years is on the cusp of plausibility. I agree that the speed is maybe more Eliezer verse, but how it happened is more Paulverse. So I’d guess l(AlphaCode|Paulverse)>l(AlphaCode|Eliezerverse). But I don’t understand Eliezerverse enough to be confident about the numerical value of the likelihoods.
Idk. At this point I want to taboo “Paul-verse” and “Eliezer-verse” and use more specific, descriptive terms instead.