At a guess, those in favor of counterfactuals hold that the sense in which multiple things can happen (in the future) is also the sense in which counterfactuals could have happened.
Would a quantum random number generator that is as likely to output “0” as “1″ help? (It seems like there is a meaningful sense for such things that “this set up has a prior probability distribution which exists”—as opposed to a (deterministic) coin flip.).
At a guess, those in favor of counterfactuals hold that the sense in which multiple things can happen (in the future) is also the sense in which counterfactuals could have happened.
I understand that this is a tempting thought, but ultimately counterproductive. Future, whether set or not, is yet unknown. You can also evaluate probabilities of events that are unknown to you but have already happened. What I find useless is the reasoning of the type “I know that X happened, but what if it didn’t, all else being equal?”
Let’s, think of a use for it. For instance, if an outcome depends on a decision you made, considering what would have happened if you made a different decision can help refine your decision making processes.
At a guess, those in favor of counterfactuals hold that the sense in which multiple things can happen (in the future) is also the sense in which counterfactuals could have happened.
Would a quantum random number generator that is as likely to output “0” as “1″ help? (It seems like there is a meaningful sense for such things that “this set up has a prior probability distribution which exists”—as opposed to a (deterministic) coin flip.).
I understand that this is a tempting thought, but ultimately counterproductive. Future, whether set or not, is yet unknown. You can also evaluate probabilities of events that are unknown to you but have already happened. What I find useless is the reasoning of the type “I know that X happened, but what if it didn’t, all else being equal?”
Let’s, think of a use for it. For instance, if an outcome depends on a decision you made, considering what would have happened if you made a different decision can help refine your decision making processes.
“Considering what may happen in a similar setup in the future if you make a different decision can help refine your decision making processes. ” FTFY
… Prompted by what did or didn’t work on the past.
Yep, definitely based on what worked and what didn’t. But future-oriented, not past-oriented.