Hmm, “AI war makes s-risks more likely” seems plausible, but compared to what? If we were given a divine choice was between a non-aligned/aligned AI war, or a suffering-oriented singleton, wouldn’t we choose the war? Maybe more likely relative to median/mean scenarios, but that seems hard to pin down.
Hmm, I thought I put a reference to the DoD’s current Replicator Initiative into the post, but I can’t find it: I must have moved it out? Still, yes, we’re moving towards automated war fighting capability.
After the AI war, there will be one AI winner and Singleon, which has all the same risk of causing s-risks, at first approximation. So AI war just adds probability to any s-risk chance from Singleton.
I want to share a few considerations:
AI war may eventually collapse to two blocks fighting each other – S.Lem wrote about this in 1959.
AI war makes s-risks more likely as non-aligned AI may take humans hostage to influence aligned AI.
AI war may naturally evolve as a continuation of the current drone warfare with automated AI-powered control systems.
Hmm, “AI war makes s-risks more likely” seems plausible, but compared to what? If we were given a divine choice was between a non-aligned/aligned AI war, or a suffering-oriented singleton, wouldn’t we choose the war? Maybe more likely relative to median/mean scenarios, but that seems hard to pin down.
Hmm, I thought I put a reference to the DoD’s current Replicator Initiative into the post, but I can’t find it: I must have moved it out? Still, yes, we’re moving towards automated war fighting capability.
After the AI war, there will be one AI winner and Singleon, which has all the same risk of causing s-risks, at first approximation. So AI war just adds probability to any s-risk chance from Singleton.