Hmm, “AI war makes s-risks more likely” seems plausible, but compared to what? If we were given a divine choice was between a non-aligned/aligned AI war, or a suffering-oriented singleton, wouldn’t we choose the war? Maybe more likely relative to median/mean scenarios, but that seems hard to pin down.
Hmm, I thought I put a reference to the DoD’s current Replicator Initiative into the post, but I can’t find it: I must have moved it out? Still, yes, we’re moving towards automated war fighting capability.
After the AI war, there will be one AI winner and Singleon, which has all the same risk of causing s-risks, at first approximation. So AI war just adds probability to any s-risk chance from Singleton.
Hmm, “AI war makes s-risks more likely” seems plausible, but compared to what? If we were given a divine choice was between a non-aligned/aligned AI war, or a suffering-oriented singleton, wouldn’t we choose the war? Maybe more likely relative to median/mean scenarios, but that seems hard to pin down.
Hmm, I thought I put a reference to the DoD’s current Replicator Initiative into the post, but I can’t find it: I must have moved it out? Still, yes, we’re moving towards automated war fighting capability.
After the AI war, there will be one AI winner and Singleon, which has all the same risk of causing s-risks, at first approximation. So AI war just adds probability to any s-risk chance from Singleton.