Bleh, I see I was again unclear about what I meant by nailing down—more precisely, how would one judge whatever has been accomplished by 2014/2020 as being ‘complete’ or ‘functional’? Frequently there are edge cases (there’s this paper reporting one group’s abandoned simulation which seemed complete oh except for this wave pattern didn’t show up and they had to simplify that...). But since you were good enough to write them:
Ah, I see. This is the sort of question that the X Prize Foundation has to wrestle with routinely. It generally takes a few months of work to take even a relatively clear problem statement and boil it down to a purely objective judging procedure. Since I already have an oracle for what I it is I want to develop (does it feel satisfying to me?), and I’m not trying to incentivize other people to do it for me, I’m not convinced that I should do said work for the C. elegans upload project. I’m not even particularly interested in formalizing my prediction for futurological purposes since it’s probably planning fallacy anyway. However, I’m open to arguments to the contrary.
I’m not convinced that I should do said work for the C. elegans upload project. I’m not even particularly interested in formalizing my prediction for futurological purposes since it’s probably planning fallacy anyway.
Well, that’s fine. I’ve make done with worse predictions than that.
Bleh, I see I was again unclear about what I meant by nailing down—more precisely, how would one judge whatever has been accomplished by 2014/2020 as being ‘complete’ or ‘functional’? Frequently there are edge cases (there’s this paper reporting one group’s abandoned simulation which seemed complete oh except for this wave pattern didn’t show up and they had to simplify that...). But since you were good enough to write them:
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4123
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4124
Ah, I see. This is the sort of question that the X Prize Foundation has to wrestle with routinely. It generally takes a few months of work to take even a relatively clear problem statement and boil it down to a purely objective judging procedure. Since I already have an oracle for what I it is I want to develop (does it feel satisfying to me?), and I’m not trying to incentivize other people to do it for me, I’m not convinced that I should do said work for the C. elegans upload project. I’m not even particularly interested in formalizing my prediction for futurological purposes since it’s probably planning fallacy anyway. However, I’m open to arguments to the contrary.
For your information, the above two links were judged as wrong
@davidad, any updates on your work?
See https://www.jefftk.com/p/we-havent-uploaded-worms and Why Is There No Successful Whole Brain Simulation Yet (2019)
Well, that’s fine. I’ve make done with worse predictions than that.
(Which paper are you referring to?)
That was just a rhetorical example; I don’t actually know what the edge cases will be in advance.