I don’t like reifying this as dishonesty when the outside view on taking ideas seriously says that it’s pretty reasonable to update slowly as you gather more kinds of evidence than just logical argument.
I think it’s definitely not dishonest to actually update too slowly versus what would be ideal. As you say, almost everyone does it.
What’s dishonest is for Bob to think 50% and say 70% (or 75%) because it will look better.
agree, in this situation he should state that he feels incentivized to state 70% and that that’s a problem.
.
I don’t like reifying this as dishonesty when the outside view on taking ideas seriously says that it’s pretty reasonable to update slowly as you gather more kinds of evidence than just logical argument.
I think it’s definitely not dishonest to actually update too slowly versus what would be ideal. As you say, almost everyone does it.
What’s dishonest is for Bob to think 50% and say 70% (or 75%) because it will look better.
agree, in this situation he should state that he feels incentivized to state 70% and that that’s a problem.
.