I’m confused about a decision theory problem related to taxes.
If I get a large tax refund, that means I over-paid taxes earlier in the year. So it’s better overall if I get no refund.
But I already know how much money I currently have, and whether I overpaid my taxes in the past doesn’t change that. If I get a large refund, I will have strictly more money than if I hadn’t gotten a refund. So it’s better if I get a refund.
These arguments can’t both be correct. I suspect the second one is wrong, and it’s preferable to get no refund, but it’s not clear to me why.