The only safety techniques that count are the ones that actually get deployed in time.
True, but note this doesn’t necessarily imply trying to maximize your impact in the mean timelines world! Alignment plans vary hugely in potential usefulness, so I think it can pretty easily be the case that your highest EV bet would only pay off in a minority of possible futures.
Be that as it may, I nevertheless feel discomfited by the fact that I have been arguing for 2026-2028 arrival of AGI for several years now, and people have been dismissing my concerns and focusing on plans for dealing with AGI in the 2030s or later.
The near-term-AGI space getting systematically neglected because it feels hard to come up with plans for is a bad pattern.
[Edit: I think that the relatively recent work done on pragmatic near-term control by Ryan and Buck at Redwood is a relieving departure from this pattern.]
True, but note this doesn’t necessarily imply trying to maximize your impact in the mean timelines world! Alignment plans vary hugely in potential usefulness, so I think it can pretty easily be the case that your highest EV bet would only pay off in a minority of possible futures.
Be that as it may, I nevertheless feel discomfited by the fact that I have been arguing for 2026-2028 arrival of AGI for several years now, and people have been dismissing my concerns and focusing on plans for dealing with AGI in the 2030s or later.
The near-term-AGI space getting systematically neglected because it feels hard to come up with plans for is a bad pattern.
[Edit: I think that the relatively recent work done on pragmatic near-term control by Ryan and Buck at Redwood is a relieving departure from this pattern.]