Yup, I’m also quite worried about this. I’m very uncertain though about the magnitude of the issue.
e.g. if most humans at OpenBrain not contributing happens in 2030 (so taking a bit more than 2x longer to happen than predicted), I’d guess that many people will not discredit us / safety people because of AI 2027 and may still give some credit.
Certainly not all people! But I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the discourse thus far on evaluating AI 2027, which (as far as I remember, might be wrong) has often focused on feeling like reality is unfolding in a way that is directionally toward AI 2027 compared to what the person previously thought, or whether AI 2027 is closer to reality than what the person had thought. And many people seemed to understand that it was not a confident prediction of any specific timeline. (I guess there was a blow up about Daniel updating his timelines later / having a median longer than AI 2027, but I’m talking about the reactions relating to how reality has compared to the scenario)
(edit: You might worry that the reception has been good so far only because reality actually has looked pretty similar to the scenario, and that will change soon. That seems very reasonable. Also, to be clear, even if the crying wolf effect is large, I think there will remain large positive effects, especially if the takeoff looks recognizable relative to the takeoff in AI 2027 in terms of the overall dynamics even if it substantially later or slower.)
I would bet that by the end of 2032, less than 20% of the current Earth’s oceans will be taken over by the “robot economy”.
I’m also less than 50% on this, maybe ~33%? You can generally see my views at https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/forecast/eli-04-02-26, they’re somewhat less aggressive than Daniel’s. (Obviously I can’t fully speak for Daniel but I think his response to your comment would be further in the direction of sticking by AI 2027′s predictions are likely to be close to right.)
Yeah, I just don’t agree that reality has played out like AI 2027 in any meaningful way that isn’t very obvious. It’s too early to say. Basically, no meaningful predictions are made until the end of 2026, so we are too early to say. It’s just too early to claim victory.
I have been meaning to write up my critiques of AI 2027 but I have too many of these kinds of posts to write up and I’m a slow writer.
Makes sense. For what it’s worth, we’ve had people tell us and seen people post on Twitter that they’ve taken scenarios like AI 2027 more seriously because so far reality has played out more like AI 2027 than they thought it would.
Yup, I’m also quite worried about this. I’m very uncertain though about the magnitude of the issue.
e.g. if most humans at OpenBrain not contributing happens in 2030 (so taking a bit more than 2x longer to happen than predicted), I’d guess that many people will not discredit us / safety people because of AI 2027 and may still give some credit.
Certainly not all people! But I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the discourse thus far on evaluating AI 2027, which (as far as I remember, might be wrong) has often focused on feeling like reality is unfolding in a way that is directionally toward AI 2027 compared to what the person previously thought, or whether AI 2027 is closer to reality than what the person had thought. And many people seemed to understand that it was not a confident prediction of any specific timeline. (I guess there was a blow up about Daniel updating his timelines later / having a median longer than AI 2027, but I’m talking about the reactions relating to how reality has compared to the scenario)
(edit: You might worry that the reception has been good so far only because reality actually has looked pretty similar to the scenario, and that will change soon. That seems very reasonable. Also, to be clear, even if the crying wolf effect is large, I think there will remain large positive effects, especially if the takeoff looks recognizable relative to the takeoff in AI 2027 in terms of the overall dynamics even if it substantially later or slower.)
I’m also less than 50% on this, maybe ~33%? You can generally see my views at https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/forecast/eli-04-02-26, they’re somewhat less aggressive than Daniel’s. (Obviously I can’t fully speak for Daniel but I think his response to your comment would be further in the direction of sticking by AI 2027′s predictions are likely to be close to right.)
Yeah, I just don’t agree that reality has played out like AI 2027 in any meaningful way that isn’t very obvious. It’s too early to say. Basically, no meaningful predictions are made until the end of 2026, so we are too early to say. It’s just too early to claim victory.
I have been meaning to write up my critiques of AI 2027 but I have too many of these kinds of posts to write up and I’m a slow writer.
Makes sense. For what it’s worth, we’ve had people tell us and seen people post on Twitter that they’ve taken scenarios like AI 2027 more seriously because so far reality has played out more like AI 2027 than they thought it would.