I’d love to see this argument expanded further but also appreciate what you’ve written here.
You sort of mention this, but it strikes me that the argument doesn’t need to be “are prediction markets useful for doing good” but just needs to be “does the improvements to prediction markets and infrastructure made by EA money and resources actually meaningfully increase the amount of good prediction markets do?”
Lastly, may I suggest cross-posting this to the EA forum?
Anything in particular you want expanded upon? I think this is most of what I have to say on the matter. I’ve been saying some form of this opinion for about 3 years now and I’m happy this is finally out there.
Yea, my point is that the bar for EA money needs to be very very high.
It’s on the EA forum. Was posted at the same time!
3 unrelated points:
I’d love to see this argument expanded further but also appreciate what you’ve written here.
You sort of mention this, but it strikes me that the argument doesn’t need to be “are prediction markets useful for doing good” but just needs to be “does the improvements to prediction markets and infrastructure made by EA money and resources actually meaningfully increase the amount of good prediction markets do?”
Lastly, may I suggest cross-posting this to the EA forum?
Anything in particular you want expanded upon? I think this is most of what I have to say on the matter. I’ve been saying some form of this opinion for about 3 years now and I’m happy this is finally out there.
Yea, my point is that the bar for EA money needs to be very very high.
It’s on the EA forum. Was posted at the same time!