Both the slowdown and race models predict that the future of Humanity is mostly in the hands of the United States—the baked-in disadvantage in chips from existing sanctions on China is crippling within short timelines, and no one else is contending.
So, if the CCP takes this model seriously, they should probably blockade Taiwan tomorrow? It’s the only fast way to equalize chip access over the next few years. They’d have to weigh the risks against the chance that timelines are long enough for their homegrown chip production to catch up, but there seems to be a compelling argument for a blockade now, especially considering the US has unusually tense relations with its allies at the moment.
China doesn’t need to perform a full invasion, just a blockade would be sufficient if you could somehow avoid escalation… though I’m not sure that you could, the US is already taking AI more seriously than China is. (It’s noteworthy that Daniel Kokotajlo’s 2021prediction had US chip sanctions happening in 2024, when they really happened in 2022.)
Perhaps more AI Safety effort should be going into figuring out a practical method for international cooperation, I worry we’ll face war before we get AIs that can negotiate us out of it as described in the scenarios here.
I think that the scenario of the war between several ASI (each merged with its origin country) is underexplored. Yes, there can be a value handshake between ASIs, but their creators will work to prevent this and see it as a type of misalignment.
Somehow, this may help some groups of people survive, as those ASI which preserve their people will look more trustworthy in the eyes of other ASIs, and this will help them form temporary unions.
The final outcome will be highly unstable: either one ASI will win, or several ASIs will start space exploration in different directions.
I think that the scenario of the war between several ASI (each merged with its origin country) is underexplored. Yes, there can be a value handshake between ASIs, but their creators will work to prevent this and see it as a type of misalignment.
Not clear to me, as long as they expect the conflict to be sufficiently destructive.
Both the slowdown and race models predict that the future of Humanity is mostly in the hands of the United States—the baked-in disadvantage in chips from existing sanctions on China is crippling within short timelines, and no one else is contending.
So, if the CCP takes this model seriously, they should probably blockade Taiwan tomorrow? It’s the only fast way to equalize chip access over the next few years. They’d have to weigh the risks against the chance that timelines are long enough for their homegrown chip production to catch up, but there seems to be a compelling argument for a blockade now, especially considering the US has unusually tense relations with its allies at the moment.
China doesn’t need to perform a full invasion, just a blockade would be sufficient if you could somehow avoid escalation… though I’m not sure that you could, the US is already taking AI more seriously than China is. (It’s noteworthy that Daniel Kokotajlo’s 2021 prediction had US chip sanctions happening in 2024, when they really happened in 2022.)
Perhaps more AI Safety effort should be going into figuring out a practical method for international cooperation, I worry we’ll face war before we get AIs that can negotiate us out of it as described in the scenarios here.
I think that the scenario of the war between several ASI (each merged with its origin country) is underexplored. Yes, there can be a value handshake between ASIs, but their creators will work to prevent this and see it as a type of misalignment.
Somehow, this may help some groups of people survive, as those ASI which preserve their people will look more trustworthy in the eyes of other ASIs, and this will help them form temporary unions.
The final outcome will be highly unstable: either one ASI will win, or several ASIs will start space exploration in different directions.
Not clear to me, as long as they expect the conflict to be sufficiently destructive.