Yes, rationality could use more competitive tests of skill. I’m not sure about having them take a year, though. Have you thought about ways to make it faster?
A simple fix would be to include predictions about particular parts of the year. For example, have a bunch of predictions about each quarter, on top of the ones about the whole year. And then you could have an extra prize for each quarter where you score only that subset of predictions.
You could easily go more short term, like “what are your predictions for September”, but I think this requires more participation and work from everyone so maybe it would be better as a second step that you do only if the relatively relaxed yearly tournament has turned out to be cool.
Yes, rationality could use more competitive tests of skill. I’m not sure about having them take a year, though. Have you thought about ways to make it faster?
A simple fix would be to include predictions about particular parts of the year. For example, have a bunch of predictions about each quarter, on top of the ones about the whole year. And then you could have an extra prize for each quarter where you score only that subset of predictions.
You could easily go more short term, like “what are your predictions for September”, but I think this requires more participation and work from everyone so maybe it would be better as a second step that you do only if the relatively relaxed yearly tournament has turned out to be cool.