Ajeya gave 15% to AGI before 2036, with little of that in the first few years after her report; maybe she’d have said 10% between 2025 and 2036.
Just because I was curious, here is the most relevant chart from the report:
This is not a direct probability estimate (since it’s about probability of affordability), but it’s probably within a factor of 2. Looks like the estimate by 2030 was 7.72% and the estimate by 2036 is 17.36%.
Just because I was curious, here is the most relevant chart from the report:
This is not a direct probability estimate (since it’s about probability of affordability), but it’s probably within a factor of 2. Looks like the estimate by 2030 was 7.72% and the estimate by 2036 is 17.36%.
Thanks. (Also note that the model isn’t the same as her overall beliefs at the time, though they were similar at the 15th and 50th percentiles.)