I’ve seen some posts on AI timelines. Is this the most definitive research on AI timelines? Where is the most definitive research on AI timelines? Does the MIRI team have a post that gives dates? I’m at an important career branch so I need solid info.
Jaime Sevilla from EpochAI wrote a literature review summarising the research and discussion on AI timelines. If you want to learn more, this might be a good place to start.
I’ve seen some posts on AI timelines. Is this the most definitive research on AI timelines? Where is the most definitive research on AI timelines? Does the MIRI team have a post that gives dates? I’m at an important career branch so I need solid info.
Jaime Sevilla from EpochAI wrote a literature review summarising the research and discussion on AI timelines. If you want to learn more, this might be a good place to start.
You can take a look at what the metaculus community thinks.
Bad news—there is no definitive answer for AI timelines :(
Some useful timeline resources not mentioned here are Ajeya Cotra’s report and a non-safety ML researcher survey from 2022, to give you an alternate viewpoint.