Yeah, my 400x view is pretty unstable and I certainly haven’t justified it. One basic idea is that if AI companies that are currently 4% of global wealth and they will go to 60% (after dilution), that’s 15x growth in your fraction of global wealth just by holding average AI investments, and you can do better by (1) using leverage and (2) making smarter investments.
You do better with leverage at the expense of increasing risk, including total loss in worlds that are only slightly off from what you expect.
You seem to be talking about what people with hundreds of billions collectively can do. Capacity is a real constraint at that point.
It’s also likely some of the best investments won’t want that much capital. Even if you’re right on the 60%, some of that can come from new private companies you can’t invest in or can only invest after they’ve grown a lot.
SALP has blown up. Still unclear what happened, but CNBC reported they sold the entire public equities book to one buyer before the market opened today.
Yeah, my 400x view is pretty unstable and I certainly haven’t justified it. One basic idea is that if AI companies that are currently 4% of global wealth and they will go to 60% (after dilution), that’s 15x growth in your fraction of global wealth just by holding average AI investments, and you can do better by (1) using leverage and (2) making smarter investments.
You do better with leverage at the expense of increasing risk, including total loss in worlds that are only slightly off from what you expect.
You seem to be talking about what people with hundreds of billions collectively can do. Capacity is a real constraint at that point.
It’s also likely some of the best investments won’t want that much capital. Even if you’re right on the 60%, some of that can come from new private companies you can’t invest in or can only invest after they’ve grown a lot.
SALP has blown up. Still unclear what happened, but CNBC reported they sold the entire public equities book to one buyer before the market opened today.