Informed people disagree about the prospects for LLM AGI – or even just what exactly was achieved this year. But they at least agree that we’re 2-20 years off (if you allow for other paradigms arising).
I think you’re probably confusing “a consensus of people mostly deferring to each other’s vibes, where the vibes are set by several industry leaders extremely incentivized to hype (as well as selected for those beliefs)” with “all informed people”. AFAIK there’s no strong argument that’s been stated anywhere publicly to be confident in short timelines. Cf. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5tqFT3bcTekvico4d/do-confident-short-timelines-make-sense
I think you’re probably confusing “a consensus of people mostly deferring to each other’s vibes, where the vibes are set by several industry leaders extremely incentivized to hype (as well as selected for those beliefs)” with “all informed people”. AFAIK there’s no strong argument that’s been stated anywhere publicly to be confident in short timelines. Cf. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5tqFT3bcTekvico4d/do-confident-short-timelines-make-sense
Fair. Just checking: are you counting 20 years as short?
It’s medium-short? IDK. Like, if someone says “90% probability of AGI within 15 years” I would call that confident short timelines, yeah.
Okee edited it.
(I am not confident, incidentally; Ctrl+F “Manifold” for my strong doubts.)