This post did not update my explicit model much, but it sure did give my intuition a concrete picture to freak out about. Claim 2 especially. I greatly look forward to the rewrite. Can I interest you in sending an outline/draft to me to beta read?
Given your nomination was for later work building on this post and spinning off discussion, you can likely condense this piece and summarize the later work / responses. (Unless you are hoping they get separately nominated for 2020?)
Your “See: Colonialism” as a casual aside had me cracking up a little. Between lackluster history education and political renarratization, I don’t think you can assume a shared context for what that even means. You expand the points much more concretely in Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover.
(The colonizers do not love you, nor do they hate you, but you live on resources they can exploit.)
In the what a soft takeoff might look like section, you paint a picture of one company gaining quiet advantage and address coalitions as a not-very-possible alternative. You can expand on this with examples from “The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over” and “Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds”, comparing other models that similarly obscure when the decisive strategic advantage of an AI hits a point of no return.
May I just say: Aaaaaa!
This post did not update my explicit model much, but it sure did give my intuition a concrete picture to freak out about. Claim 2 especially. I greatly look forward to the rewrite. Can I interest you in sending an outline/draft to me to beta read?
Given your nomination was for later work building on this post and spinning off discussion, you can likely condense this piece and summarize the later work / responses. (Unless you are hoping they get separately nominated for 2020?)
Your “See: Colonialism” as a casual aside had me cracking up a little. Between lackluster history education and political renarratization, I don’t think you can assume a shared context for what that even means. You expand the points much more concretely in
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover.
(The colonizers do not love you, nor do they hate you, but you live on resources they can exploit.)
In the what a soft takeoff might look like section, you paint a picture of one company gaining quiet advantage and address coalitions as a not-very-possible alternative. You can expand on this with examples from “The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over” and “Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds”, comparing other models that similarly obscure when the decisive strategic advantage of an AI hits a point of no return.
Good skill!
Thanks! Yeah I like my later work more and hope it gets nominated for 2020. I’ve compiled it all into a sequence now.
Oh damn, didn’t see this till now! Sending you the gdoc of my review now.