I guess that’s the main element I didn’t mention: many people on this forum would suggest judging via predictive skill/forecasting success. I think this is an ok heuristic, but of course the long time horizons involved in many strategic questions makes it hard to judge (and Tetlock has documented the problems with forecasting over long time horizons where these questions matter most).
Mostly, the people I think of as having strong strategic skill are closely linked to some political influence (which implicitly requires this skill to effect change) such as attaining a senior govt position, being influential over the Biden EO/export controls, UK govt AI efforts, etc. Alternatively, they are linked to some big major idea in governance or technical safety, often by spotting something missing years before it became relevant.
Often by interacting regularly with good thinkers you can get a sense that they have stronger mental models for trends and the levers controlling trends than others, but concrete judgement is sometimes extremely difficult until a key event has passed and we can judge in hindsight (especially about very high level trends such as Mearsheimer’s disputed take on the causes of the Ukraine invasion, Fukuyama’s infamous “end of history” prediction, or even Pinker’s “Better Angels of Our Nature” predictions about continually declining global conflict).
Political influence seems a very different skill to me? Lots of very influential politicians have been very incompetent in other real world ways
Alternatively, they are linked to some big major idea in governance or technical safety, often by spotting something missing years before it became relevant.
This is just a special case (and an unusually important one) of a good forecasting record, right?
I suppose I mean influence over politics, policy, or governance (this is very high level since these are all distinct and separable), rather than actually being political necessarily. I do think there are some common skills, but actually being a politician weighs so many other factors more heavily that the strategic skill is not selected on very strongly at all. Being a politician’s advisor, on the other hand...
Yes, it’s a special case, but importantly one that is not evaluated by Brier score or Manifold bucks.
I guess that’s the main element I didn’t mention: many people on this forum would suggest judging via predictive skill/forecasting success. I think this is an ok heuristic, but of course the long time horizons involved in many strategic questions makes it hard to judge (and Tetlock has documented the problems with forecasting over long time horizons where these questions matter most).
Mostly, the people I think of as having strong strategic skill are closely linked to some political influence (which implicitly requires this skill to effect change) such as attaining a senior govt position, being influential over the Biden EO/export controls, UK govt AI efforts, etc. Alternatively, they are linked to some big major idea in governance or technical safety, often by spotting something missing years before it became relevant.
Often by interacting regularly with good thinkers you can get a sense that they have stronger mental models for trends and the levers controlling trends than others, but concrete judgement is sometimes extremely difficult until a key event has passed and we can judge in hindsight (especially about very high level trends such as Mearsheimer’s disputed take on the causes of the Ukraine invasion, Fukuyama’s infamous “end of history” prediction, or even Pinker’s “Better Angels of Our Nature” predictions about continually declining global conflict).
Political influence seems a very different skill to me? Lots of very influential politicians have been very incompetent in other real world ways
This is just a special case (and an unusually important one) of a good forecasting record, right?
I suppose I mean influence over politics, policy, or governance (this is very high level since these are all distinct and separable), rather than actually being political necessarily. I do think there are some common skills, but actually being a politician weighs so many other factors more heavily that the strategic skill is not selected on very strongly at all. Being a politician’s advisor, on the other hand...
Yes, it’s a special case, but importantly one that is not evaluated by Brier score or Manifold bucks.