Political influence seems a very different skill to me? Lots of very influential politicians have been very incompetent in other real world ways
Alternatively, they are linked to some big major idea in governance or technical safety, often by spotting something missing years before it became relevant.
This is just a special case (and an unusually important one) of a good forecasting record, right?
I suppose I mean influence over politics, policy, or governance (this is very high level since these are all distinct and separable), rather than actually being political necessarily. I do think there are some common skills, but actually being a politician weighs so many other factors more heavily that the strategic skill is not selected on very strongly at all. Being a politician’s advisor, on the other hand...
Yes, it’s a special case, but importantly one that is not evaluated by Brier score or Manifold bucks.
Political influence seems a very different skill to me? Lots of very influential politicians have been very incompetent in other real world ways
This is just a special case (and an unusually important one) of a good forecasting record, right?
I suppose I mean influence over politics, policy, or governance (this is very high level since these are all distinct and separable), rather than actually being political necessarily. I do think there are some common skills, but actually being a politician weighs so many other factors more heavily that the strategic skill is not selected on very strongly at all. Being a politician’s advisor, on the other hand...
Yes, it’s a special case, but importantly one that is not evaluated by Brier score or Manifold bucks.