My guess is somewhere between 2, 3, and 4 — the correct approach is SIA-ish but maybe has surprising implications in edge cases, perhaps in particular because you should think about distributions or densities or something rather than numbers of people and infinity.
Which of these is wrong?
Anthropic reasoning works, or “does something,” or makes sense.
SIA is the correct take on anthropic reasoning.
SIA entails infinite populations.
Infinite populations break anthropic reasoning.
The above four statements aren’t compatible.
All seem true to me, taken individually.
I don’t know but Carlsmith 2021 seems relevant.
My guess is somewhere between 2, 3, and 4 — the correct approach is SIA-ish but maybe has surprising implications in edge cases, perhaps in particular because you should think about distributions or densities or something rather than numbers of people and infinity.