I take your point, it requires everyone to behave themselves (I’m actually familiar with this history, I went down a Japanese history rabbit hole about this time last year, fascinating), but if we continue with Japan we find that due to a third option of trading-with-other-nations (beginning with the Meiji restoration I think...) Japan continues to operate as a sovereign nation without the need to expand (with the exception of its ill-fated and frankly bonkers attempt to expand in WWII...).
So, again it’s good to look for answers outside the paradigm of expand or die. Cooperation and trade are non-zero-sum options that are available in the messy and therefore less theoretically-bound real world, as opposed to a formal game theory scenario.
But I think the expansionist trap you describe is a real thing and an important cautionary tale, which could perhaps be applied to our modern perpetual growth model of economics and its attendant consumerism (here I am sounding like a first year sociology major).
Japan switched hard from isolationism to expansionism almost immediately after the Meiji restoration. This started with the first Sino-Japanese war, in 1894, during which Japan invaded and annexed Korea. This continued with the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, where the Japanese defeated the Russians and took control of Port Arthur and the Sakhalin Islands. This continued with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, which eventually bled into World War 2 after the Japanese preemptively attacked the US in order to enable their expansion into Southeast Asia.
During this time, the Japanese self-consciously adopted the ideological, governance and military structures of expansionist European nations in order to avoid being left behind and dominated. That’s why the Japanese parliament is called the Diet, a German word. The Japanese Navy was explicitly modeled after the British Navy.
It was only after the Japanese were thoroughly defeated by the United States and Soviet Union that they transitioned to their current model of focusing on commercial success over military expansion. They were able to do that because, in the wake of World War 2, they were given explicit security guarantees by one of the two major global hegemons at the time.
Ah, yes now you’ve jogged my memory about all the attempted expansionism in between. You make a solid case that they didn’t step outside of the expand-or-die dichotomy willingly.
The point I’m trying to make is that the third option was there (perhaps it wasn’t feasible before WWII, I’m not sure), but the third option (mutually beneficial trade and cooperation) ended up sustaining Japan from WWII to the present without the need for expansion.
The point of the post is that often there is often a third option outside of expand-or-die, and it’s worth questioning what that could be in any given problem. But thanks for all the very good points—I absolutely agree with you that there have been civilisations that have had to, or have seemed to have to, expand in order to survive. Thanks for your well-considered points, and the spot-on history (apologies for the patchiness of mine).
I take your point, it requires everyone to behave themselves (I’m actually familiar with this history, I went down a Japanese history rabbit hole about this time last year, fascinating), but if we continue with Japan we find that due to a third option of trading-with-other-nations (beginning with the Meiji restoration I think...) Japan continues to operate as a sovereign nation without the need to expand (with the exception of its ill-fated and frankly bonkers attempt to expand in WWII...).
So, again it’s good to look for answers outside the paradigm of expand or die. Cooperation and trade are non-zero-sum options that are available in the messy and therefore less theoretically-bound real world, as opposed to a formal game theory scenario.
But I think the expansionist trap you describe is a real thing and an important cautionary tale, which could perhaps be applied to our modern perpetual growth model of economics and its attendant consumerism (here I am sounding like a first year sociology major).
Japan switched hard from isolationism to expansionism almost immediately after the Meiji restoration. This started with the first Sino-Japanese war, in 1894, during which Japan invaded and annexed Korea. This continued with the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, where the Japanese defeated the Russians and took control of Port Arthur and the Sakhalin Islands. This continued with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, which eventually bled into World War 2 after the Japanese preemptively attacked the US in order to enable their expansion into Southeast Asia.
During this time, the Japanese self-consciously adopted the ideological, governance and military structures of expansionist European nations in order to avoid being left behind and dominated. That’s why the Japanese parliament is called the Diet, a German word. The Japanese Navy was explicitly modeled after the British Navy.
It was only after the Japanese were thoroughly defeated by the United States and Soviet Union that they transitioned to their current model of focusing on commercial success over military expansion. They were able to do that because, in the wake of World War 2, they were given explicit security guarantees by one of the two major global hegemons at the time.
Ah, yes now you’ve jogged my memory about all the attempted expansionism in between. You make a solid case that they didn’t step outside of the expand-or-die dichotomy willingly.
The point I’m trying to make is that the third option was there (perhaps it wasn’t feasible before WWII, I’m not sure), but the third option (mutually beneficial trade and cooperation) ended up sustaining Japan from WWII to the present without the need for expansion.
The point of the post is that often there is often a third option outside of expand-or-die, and it’s worth questioning what that could be in any given problem. But thanks for all the very good points—I absolutely agree with you that there have been civilisations that have had to, or have seemed to have to, expand in order to survive. Thanks for your well-considered points, and the spot-on history (apologies for the patchiness of mine).