Anyone know what’s up with the betting markets? They give Trump 40% to win the presidency but only 33% to win the primary, and I also don’t get the jumps in his graph.
Looks like it’s because the presidency race is dominated in volume by the FTX market, which is much more bullish on Trump than other markets, while the primary races don’t have corresponding FTX markets. I would look at PredictIt or something rather than Election Betting Odds for inter-question consistency.
Anyone know what’s up with the betting markets? They give Trump 40% to win the presidency but only 33% to win the primary, and I also don’t get the jumps in his graph.
Looks like it’s because the presidency race is dominated in volume by the FTX market, which is much more bullish on Trump than other markets, while the primary races don’t have corresponding FTX markets. I would look at PredictIt or something rather than Election Betting Odds for inter-question consistency.
Thanks! That much difference between markets is a pretty devastating sign for accuracy, though.