Looks like it’s because the presidency race is dominated in volume by the FTX market, which is much more bullish on Trump than other markets, while the primary races don’t have corresponding FTX markets. I would look at PredictIt or something rather than Election Betting Odds for inter-question consistency.
Looks like it’s because the presidency race is dominated in volume by the FTX market, which is much more bullish on Trump than other markets, while the primary races don’t have corresponding FTX markets. I would look at PredictIt or something rather than Election Betting Odds for inter-question consistency.
Thanks! That much difference between markets is a pretty devastating sign for accuracy, though.