It’s the estimate of real economic growth. If AGI has a good chance of happening in the next 30 years and it’s priced in, that graph should go up.
This may be a definition disagreement. IMO, there are a LOT of changes, economic and otherwise, that go into “AI timelines”, which won’t be priced in to CPI-inflation predictions.
30y-TIPS seems like a better fit.
It’s the estimate of real economic growth. If AGI has a good chance of happening in the next 30 years and it’s priced in, that graph should go up.
This may be a definition disagreement. IMO, there are a LOT of changes, economic and otherwise, that go into “AI timelines”, which won’t be priced in to CPI-inflation predictions.
30y-TIPS seems like a better fit.