Could you spell this out? I don’t see how AI has much to do with trade. Is the idea that AI development is bounded on the cost of GPUs, and this will raise the cost of outside-China GPUs compared to inside-China GPUs? Or is it that there will be less VC money e.g. because interest rates go up to combat inflation?
The costs of capex go way up. It costs a lot more to build datacenters. It will cost a lot more to buy GPUs. It might cost less to buy energy? Lenders will be in poorer shape. AI companies will lose funding. I think it’s already quite tenuous, given how little moat AI companies have. Costs are exploding and pretraining scaling seems too diminishing to be worth it. It’s also not clear how AI labs will solve the reliability issue (at least to investors).
I also expect Taiwan to start ignoring export controls if our obscenely high tariffs on them remain.
Could you spell this out? I don’t see how AI has much to do with trade. Is the idea that AI development is bounded on the cost of GPUs, and this will raise the cost of outside-China GPUs compared to inside-China GPUs? Or is it that there will be less VC money e.g. because interest rates go up to combat inflation?
The costs of capex go way up. It costs a lot more to build datacenters. It will cost a lot more to buy GPUs. It might cost less to buy energy? Lenders will be in poorer shape. AI companies will lose funding. I think it’s already quite tenuous, given how little moat AI companies have. Costs are exploding and pretraining scaling seems too diminishing to be worth it. It’s also not clear how AI labs will solve the reliability issue (at least to investors).
I also expect Taiwan to start ignoring export controls if our obscenely high tariffs on them remain.