The next question is what counts as building a raft for everyone. Political action in favor of regulation? (I’d say yes.) Working on alignment at big labs? (I’d say no.) Working on open models to tilt the balance of AI power toward the masses? (I’d say yes.)
Agree on the first two points; working on alignment at the big labs seems like a losing game even in the direct sense, and from what I hear tends to lead to accidentally-accelerating-capabilities regardless. I’m not so sure about working on open models, though I don’t oppose it: I just think that political-economic forces will ensure their development regardless, as race dynamics between China and the US have already kicked in.
Beyond (and in support of) political action in favor of regulation, I think that popular mobilization is a necessary prerequisite to any ‘happy ending’. While direct electoral accountability is in practice limited, sufficiently large and angry crowds have a power all their own (c.f. the achievements of the civil rights movement).
I think that popular mobilization is a necessary prerequisite to any ‘happy ending’
Yes, that’s my main conclusion as well. “Only a strong public movement driving government regulation” as Bill Hibbard put it in his amazingly prescient text in 2003.
Great condensation of my central point!
Agree on the first two points; working on alignment at the big labs seems like a losing game even in the direct sense, and from what I hear tends to lead to accidentally-accelerating-capabilities regardless. I’m not so sure about working on open models, though I don’t oppose it: I just think that political-economic forces will ensure their development regardless, as race dynamics between China and the US have already kicked in.
Beyond (and in support of) political action in favor of regulation, I think that popular mobilization is a necessary prerequisite to any ‘happy ending’. While direct electoral accountability is in practice limited, sufficiently large and angry crowds have a power all their own (c.f. the achievements of the civil rights movement).
Yes, that’s my main conclusion as well. “Only a strong public movement driving government regulation” as Bill Hibbard put it in his amazingly prescient text in 2003.