think about how bad you expect the information would be if I selected for the worst, credible info I could share
Alright. Knowing nothing about Nonlinear or about Ben, but based on the rationalist milieu, then for an org that’s weird but basically fine I’d expect to see stuff like ex-employees alleging a nebulously “abusive” environment based on their own legitimately bad experiences and painting a gestalt picture that suggests unpleasant practices but without any smoking-gun allegations of really egregious concrete behavior (as distinct from very bad effects on the accusers); allegations of nepotism based on social connections between the org’s leadership and their funders or staff; accusations of shoddy or motivated research which require hours to evaluate; sources staying anonymous for fear of “retaliation” but without being able to point to any legible instances of retaliation or concrete threats to justify this; and/or thirdhand reports of lying or misdirection around complicated social situations.
[reads post]
This sure has a lot more allegations of very specific and egregious behavior than that, yeah.
EDIT: Based on Nonlinear’s reply and the thorough records they provide, it seems that the smoking-gun allegations of really egregious concrete behavior are probably just false. This leaves room for unresolvable disagreement on the more nebulous accusations, but as I said initially, that’s the pattern I’d expect to see if Nonlinear were weird but basically fine.
Great prediction, I’m pleased that you said it. I’d also be curious to know specific parts that were most surprising to you reading the post, that didn’t match up with this prediction.
Offering a specific amount of pay, in cash and in kind, and then not doing the accounting to determine whether or not that amount was actually paid out. If I’m charitable to the point of gullibility, then this is unethical and culpable negligence. Probably it’s just fraud. (Assuming this allegation is true, of course, and AFAIK it is not yet disputed.)
Screenshots of threats to retaliate for speaking up.
EDIT: Nonlinear has now replied and disputed many of the allegations. I am persuaded that the allegation of fraud/negligence around payment is simply false. As for the screenshots of threats to retaliate, my opinion is that retaliation or threats to retaliate are perfectly justified in the face of the behavior which Nonlinear alleges. Nonlinear also provides longer chatlogs around one of the screenshotted texts which they argue recontextualizes it.
Alright. Knowing nothing about Nonlinear or about Ben, but based on the rationalist milieu, then for an org that’s weird but basically fine I’d expect to see stuff like ex-employees alleging a nebulously “abusive” environment based on their own legitimately bad experiences and painting a gestalt picture that suggests unpleasant practices but without any smoking-gun allegations of really egregious concrete behavior (as distinct from very bad effects on the accusers); allegations of nepotism based on social connections between the org’s leadership and their funders or staff; accusations of shoddy or motivated research which require hours to evaluate; sources staying anonymous for fear of “retaliation” but without being able to point to any legible instances of retaliation or concrete threats to justify this; and/or thirdhand reports of lying or misdirection around complicated social situations.
[reads post]
This sure has a lot more allegations of very specific and egregious behavior than that, yeah.
EDIT: Based on Nonlinear’s reply and the thorough records they provide, it seems that the smoking-gun allegations of really egregious concrete behavior are probably just false. This leaves room for unresolvable disagreement on the more nebulous accusations, but as I said initially, that’s the pattern I’d expect to see if Nonlinear were weird but basically fine.
Great prediction, I’m pleased that you said it. I’d also be curious to know specific parts that were most surprising to you reading the post, that didn’t match up with this prediction.
Offering a specific amount of pay, in cash and in kind, and then not doing the accounting to determine whether or not that amount was actually paid out. If I’m charitable to the point of gullibility, then this is unethical and culpable negligence. Probably it’s just fraud. (Assuming this allegation is true, of course, and
AFAIK it is not yet disputed.)Screenshots of threats to retaliate for speaking up.
EDIT: Nonlinear has now replied and disputed many of the allegations. I am persuaded that the allegation of fraud/negligence around payment is simply false. As for the screenshots of threats to retaliate, my opinion is that retaliation or threats to retaliate are perfectly justified in the face of the behavior which Nonlinear alleges. Nonlinear also provides longer chatlogs around one of the screenshotted texts which they argue recontextualizes it.
Thank you for taking the time to preregister your thoughts. This was great, and helpful for me to read.
Kudos for doing the exercise!