I wish people would quit using this as an example of a fallacy. With the gross uncertainties involved in predicting presidential popularity, “current popularity” is probably the best predictor available.
Not true. Popularity isn’t an efficient futures market.
Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his / her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president’s popularity two years later is stupid.
Not true. Popularity isn’t an efficient futures market.
OK, what would be a better predictor of “popularity six months from now”?
Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his / her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president’s popularity two years later is stupid.
Nor are existing futures markets.