Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his /​ her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president’s popularity two years later is stupid.
Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his /​ her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president’s popularity two years later is stupid.