Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his / her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president’s popularity two years later is stupid.
OK, what would be a better predictor of “popularity six months from now”?
Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his / her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president’s popularity two years later is stupid.