This just seems confusing to the average person. P(Doom|AI) or P(Doom|~AI) are both greater than zero in this case and seems easier to discuss
The problem is that when normal people hear “P(Doom)” they assume implicitly that P(Doom|~AI) is zero, and it’s very hard to undo this assumption.
So it creates more truth to allow P(Doom) to be negative, because that more closely tracks what people actually care about.
This just seems confusing to the average person. P(Doom|AI) or P(Doom|~AI) are both greater than zero in this case and seems easier to discuss
The problem is that when normal people hear “P(Doom)” they assume implicitly that P(Doom|~AI) is zero, and it’s very hard to undo this assumption.
So it creates more truth to allow P(Doom) to be negative, because that more closely tracks what people actually care about.