The problem is that when normal people hear “P(Doom)” they assume implicitly that P(Doom|~AI) is zero, and it’s very hard to undo this assumption.
So it creates more truth to allow P(Doom) to be negative, because that more closely tracks what people actually care about.
The problem is that when normal people hear “P(Doom)” they assume implicitly that P(Doom|~AI) is zero, and it’s very hard to undo this assumption.
So it creates more truth to allow P(Doom) to be negative, because that more closely tracks what people actually care about.