Even less important than it was last week, but if anyone wants to come out and tell me why they went on a mass-downvoting spree on my comments again, please feel free to do so.
How did you get this number? Is it lower or higher than Laplace’s rule of succession would suggest? Have you ever seen such a comment work?
I have once seen such a comment produce an admission, but I don’t think it was very productive. In fact, I think the two people disagreed on what happened.
added: maybe you are distinguishing between your explicitly asking for the person from everyone else complaining to the general public, with your method a priori better, but untested. From my observation so once working out of fifty, Laplace tells me 4%, compatible with your higher 5-10%.
Even less important than it was last week, but if anyone wants to come out and tell me why they went on a mass-downvoting spree on my comments again, please feel free to do so.
What’s your probability estimate on that happening?
A whole 5-10%.
How did you get this number? Is it lower or higher than Laplace’s rule of succession would suggest? Have you ever seen such a comment work?
I have once seen such a comment produce an admission, but I don’t think it was very productive. In fact, I think the two people disagreed on what happened.
added: maybe you are distinguishing between your explicitly asking for the person from everyone else complaining to the general public, with your method a priori better, but untested. From my observation so once working out of fifty, Laplace tells me 4%, compatible with your higher 5-10%.
I also PMed some people which I thought would increase the chance of them coming out by maybe 1-2%.