I think we’re in stage 4 in some ways and stage 3 in others, yeah.
Looking back at the scenario, I think if we just push your predictions forward by 70% (multiply the time gap from when they were made to when the predicted events would happen by 1.7) they look pretty good. Arguably (2) happened in Q2 2025 (first time I remember AI agents being a big deal was with o3) and (3) happened in Q4 2025 (I think there was a transition in how autonomously the agents could function around that time, it’s definitely the time when I felt comfortable just letting the AI write code without manually reviewing everything it was writing).
If we take that view, (4) will probably “really happen” in Q4 2026.
Note that the scenario I gave wasn’t actually a prediction, or at least, it wasn’t my median world. I said elsewhere in thread that my median was 2027 for AGI, and implied that my median for ASI was more like 27/28:
To be clear, my view is that we’ll achieve AGI around 2027, ASI within a year of that, and then some sort of crazy robot-powered self-replicating economy within, say, three years of that. So 1000x energy consumption around then or shortly thereafter (depends on the doubling time of the crazy superintelligence-designed-and-managed robot economy).
So my actual prediction would have been like the scenario but stretched out another 1-2 years.
I think we’re in stage 4 in some ways and stage 3 in others, yeah.
Looking back at the scenario, I think if we just push your predictions forward by 70% (multiply the time gap from when they were made to when the predicted events would happen by 1.7) they look pretty good. Arguably (2) happened in Q2 2025 (first time I remember AI agents being a big deal was with o3) and (3) happened in Q4 2025 (I think there was a transition in how autonomously the agents could function around that time, it’s definitely the time when I felt comfortable just letting the AI write code without manually reviewing everything it was writing).
If we take that view, (4) will probably “really happen” in Q4 2026.
Yep! Thanks.
Note that the scenario I gave wasn’t actually a prediction, or at least, it wasn’t my median world. I said elsewhere in thread that my median was 2027 for AGI, and implied that my median for ASI was more like 27/28:
So my actual prediction would have been like the scenario but stretched out another 1-2 years.
Makes sense.