Note that the scenario I gave wasn’t actually a prediction, or at least, it wasn’t my median world. I said elsewhere in thread that my median was 2027 for AGI, and implied that my median for ASI was more like 27/28:
To be clear, my view is that we’ll achieve AGI around 2027, ASI within a year of that, and then some sort of crazy robot-powered self-replicating economy within, say, three years of that. So 1000x energy consumption around then or shortly thereafter (depends on the doubling time of the crazy superintelligence-designed-and-managed robot economy).
So my actual prediction would have been like the scenario but stretched out another 1-2 years.
Yep! Thanks.
Note that the scenario I gave wasn’t actually a prediction, or at least, it wasn’t my median world. I said elsewhere in thread that my median was 2027 for AGI, and implied that my median for ASI was more like 27/28:
So my actual prediction would have been like the scenario but stretched out another 1-2 years.
Makes sense.