My high estimate came from spending insufficient mental energy to come to a stable estimate as well as, as Eliezer said “if you assigned a probability higher than 15%, it meant you had a really major problem with crediting the opinions of other people and the authority of idiots.”
My high estimate came from spending insufficient mental energy to come to a stable estimate as well as, as Eliezer said “if you assigned a probability higher than 15%, it meant you had a really major problem with crediting the opinions of other people and the authority of idiots.”