The problem with the uncertain future is that it is a model of reality which allows you to play with the parameters of the model, but not the structure. For example, it has no option for “model uncertainty”, e.g. the possibility that the assumptions it makes about forms of probability distributions are incorrect. And a lot of these assumptions were made for the sake of tractability rather than realism. I think that the best way to use it is as an intuition pump for your own model, which you could make in excel or in your head.
Giving probabilities of 99% is a classic symptom of not having any model uncertainty.
Giving probabilities of 99% is a classic symptom of not having any model uncertainty.
If Nick and I write some more posts I think this would be the theme. Structural uncertainty is hard to think around.
Anyway, I got my singularity estimations by listening to lots of people working at SIAI and seeing whose points I found compelling. When I arrived at Benton I was thinking something like 2055. It’s a little unsettling that the more arguments I hear from both sides the nearer in the future my predictions are. I think my estimates are probably too biased towards Steve Rayhawk’s, but this is because everyone else’s estimates seem to take the form of outside view considerations that I find weak.
The problem with the uncertain future is that it is a model of reality which allows you to play with the parameters of the model, but not the structure. For example, it has no option for “model uncertainty”, e.g. the possibility that the assumptions it makes about forms of probability distributions are incorrect. And a lot of these assumptions were made for the sake of tractability rather than realism. I think that the best way to use it is as an intuition pump for your own model, which you could make in excel or in your head.
Giving probabilities of 99% is a classic symptom of not having any model uncertainty.
If Nick and I write some more posts I think this would be the theme. Structural uncertainty is hard to think around.
Anyway, I got my singularity estimations by listening to lots of people working at SIAI and seeing whose points I found compelling. When I arrived at Benton I was thinking something like 2055. It’s a little unsettling that the more arguments I hear from both sides the nearer in the future my predictions are. I think my estimates are probably too biased towards Steve Rayhawk’s, but this is because everyone else’s estimates seem to take the form of outside view considerations that I find weak.