Giving probabilities of 99% is a classic symptom of not having any model uncertainty.
If Nick and I write some more posts I think this would be the theme. Structural uncertainty is hard to think around.
Anyway, I got my singularity estimations by listening to lots of people working at SIAI and seeing whose points I found compelling. When I arrived at Benton I was thinking something like 2055. It’s a little unsettling that the more arguments I hear from both sides the nearer in the future my predictions are. I think my estimates are probably too biased towards Steve Rayhawk’s, but this is because everyone else’s estimates seem to take the form of outside view considerations that I find weak.
If Nick and I write some more posts I think this would be the theme. Structural uncertainty is hard to think around.
Anyway, I got my singularity estimations by listening to lots of people working at SIAI and seeing whose points I found compelling. When I arrived at Benton I was thinking something like 2055. It’s a little unsettling that the more arguments I hear from both sides the nearer in the future my predictions are. I think my estimates are probably too biased towards Steve Rayhawk’s, but this is because everyone else’s estimates seem to take the form of outside view considerations that I find weak.