This is a relatively straightforward question in the context of quantum mechanics. There is a fact of the matter of how much amplitude the world states get where one person wins an election vs. the other one. This question is about how much such decoherence there will be.
In this conception of uncertainty there is no answer to the matter of which of the two outcomes really happens. Both events get some magical reality fluid, as Eliezer would call it.
I’m not sure there IS a fact of the matter, as far as any agent upstream of the macro-scale event will be able to measure. There is a mathematical abstraction about it that seems to match some extremely micro observations, but it’s extremely unclear how that can be used to predict future experiences of instantiated beings.
This is a relatively straightforward question in the context of quantum mechanics. There is a fact of the matter of how much amplitude the world states get where one person wins an election vs. the other one. This question is about how much such decoherence there will be.
In this conception of uncertainty there is no answer to the matter of which of the two outcomes really happens. Both events get some magical reality fluid, as Eliezer would call it.
I’m not sure there IS a fact of the matter, as far as any agent upstream of the macro-scale event will be able to measure. There is a mathematical abstraction about it that seems to match some extremely micro observations, but it’s extremely unclear how that can be used to predict future experiences of instantiated beings.