Good topic for a paper. I wonder if the publishing of risk analysis frameworks itself winds up being somewhat counterproductive by causing less original thought applied to a novel threat and more box checking/ass covering/transfer of responsibility.
However, I thought this particular framework felt much more like a way of organising one’s thoughts, highlighting considerations to attend to, etc., which just made things a bit less nebulous and abstract, rather than boiling things down to a list of very precise, very simple “things to check” or “boxes to tick”. My guess would be that a framework of this form would be more likely to guide thought, and possibly even prompt thought because it means that you feel like you can get some traction on an otherwise extremely fuzzy problem, and less likely to lead to people just going through the motions.
Also, as a somewhat separate point, I find it plausible that even a framework that is very “tick-box-y” could still be an improvement, in cases where by default people have very little direct incentives to think about risks/safety, and the problem is very complicated. If the alternative is “almost no thought about large-scale risks” rather than “original and context-relevant thought about large-scale risks”, then even just ass-covering and box-checking could be an improvement.
I also have a prior that in some cases, even very intelligent professionals in very complicated domains can benefit from checklists. This is in part based on Atul Gawande’s work in the healthcare setting (which I haven’t looked into closely):
It’s as simple as an old-fashioned checklist, like those used by pilots, restaurateurs and construction engineers. When his research team introduced one in eight hospitals in 2008, major surgery complications dropped 36% and deaths plunged 47%.
(On the other hand, I definitely also found the “tick-box” type mindset instilled/required the school I previously worked at infuriating and deeply counterproductive. But I think that was mostly because the boxes to be ticked were pointless; I think a better checklist, which also remained somewhat abstract and focused on principles rather than specific actions, would’ve been possible.)
Good topic for a paper. I wonder if the publishing of risk analysis frameworks itself winds up being somewhat counterproductive by causing less original thought applied to a novel threat and more box checking/ass covering/transfer of responsibility.
I can imagine that happening in some cases.
However, I thought this particular framework felt much more like a way of organising one’s thoughts, highlighting considerations to attend to, etc., which just made things a bit less nebulous and abstract, rather than boiling things down to a list of very precise, very simple “things to check” or “boxes to tick”. My guess would be that a framework of this form would be more likely to guide thought, and possibly even prompt thought because it means that you feel like you can get some traction on an otherwise extremely fuzzy problem, and less likely to lead to people just going through the motions.
Also, as a somewhat separate point, I find it plausible that even a framework that is very “tick-box-y” could still be an improvement, in cases where by default people have very little direct incentives to think about risks/safety, and the problem is very complicated. If the alternative is “almost no thought about large-scale risks” rather than “original and context-relevant thought about large-scale risks”, then even just ass-covering and box-checking could be an improvement.
I also have a prior that in some cases, even very intelligent professionals in very complicated domains can benefit from checklists. This is in part based on Atul Gawande’s work in the healthcare setting (which I haven’t looked into closely):
(On the other hand, I definitely also found the “tick-box” type mindset instilled/required the school I previously worked at infuriating and deeply counterproductive. But I think that was mostly because the boxes to be ticked were pointless; I think a better checklist, which also remained somewhat abstract and focused on principles rather than specific actions, would’ve been possible.)
Good points, I agree.