″ Until now, civilizational decay has been illegible—patterns without coordinates, dynamics without measurement. ”
There are several in depth works on this. You have been pointed at Ray Dalio, he approaches the cycle from a primarily economic angle, but with a great grasp of history. I second the recommendation.
Peter Turchin coined the term Cliodynamics for the school of research focused on dynamic systems approach to history, macrosociology and cycles. The field has its own peer reviewed journal ( https://escholarship.org/uc/Cliodynamics ) Many other scholars operate in the field, but his most recent book in the field is End Times Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration.
Neil Howe in his book The Fourth Turning discusses generational theory applied to a self-referral process of events and archetypes that drive a recurring cycle. He primarily focuses on America but not exclusively. He has ongoing research and publications as well.
And there are more, but these are some prominent theories already operating in the space.
You’re right, I overstated and compressed/simplified too much with that sentence. Dalio isn’t listed in the influences section of the full work explicitly but Turchin is.
The more precise claim: we have maps, but we lack the underlying physics from which those maps can be derived. What’s been missing is a substrate-independent generative model that explains why these patterns recur across different substrates and civilizations. I think this is neglected and needed to make it more legible and thereby eventually engineer the dynamics.
These models are not wrong. The Aliveness framework attempts to provide a deeper, shared set of generative principles (the Four Axiomatic Dilemmas) from which these different, domain-specific patterns can be derived.
″ Until now, civilizational decay has been illegible—patterns without coordinates, dynamics without measurement. ”
There are several in depth works on this. You have been pointed at Ray Dalio, he approaches the cycle from a primarily economic angle, but with a great grasp of history. I second the recommendation.
Peter Turchin coined the term Cliodynamics for the school of research focused on dynamic systems approach to history, macrosociology and cycles. The field has its own peer reviewed journal ( https://escholarship.org/uc/Cliodynamics ) Many other scholars operate in the field, but his most recent book in the field is End Times Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration.
Neil Howe in his book The Fourth Turning discusses generational theory applied to a self-referral process of events and archetypes that drive a recurring cycle. He primarily focuses on America but not exclusively. He has ongoing research and publications as well.
And there are more, but these are some prominent theories already operating in the space.
You’re right, I overstated and compressed/simplified too much with that sentence. Dalio isn’t listed in the influences section of the full work explicitly but Turchin is.
The more precise claim: we have maps, but we lack the underlying physics from which those maps can be derived. What’s been missing is a substrate-independent generative model that explains why these patterns recur across different substrates and civilizations. I think this is neglected and needed to make it more legible and thereby eventually engineer the dynamics.
These models are not wrong. The Aliveness framework attempts to provide a deeper, shared set of generative principles (the Four Axiomatic Dilemmas) from which these different, domain-specific patterns can be derived.