If you’re making ~20 predictions a year, you shouldn’t be doing any funky math to analyse your forecasts. Just go through each one after the fact and decide whether or not the forecast was sensible with the benefit of hindsight.
I am even explaining what an normal distribution is because I do not expect my audience to know...
I think this is exactly my point, if someone doesn’t know what a normal distribution is, maybe they should be looking at their forecasts in a fuzzier way than trying to back fit some model to them.
All I propose that people sometimes make continuous predictions, and if they want to start doing that and track how much they suck, then I give them instructions to quickly getting a number for how well it is going.
I disagree that’s all you propose. As I said in an earlier comment, I’m broadly in favour of people making continuous forecasts as they convey more information. You paired your article with what I believe is broadly bad advise around analysing those forecasts. (Especially if we’re talking about a sample of ~20 forecasts)
I would love you as a reviewer of my second post as there I will try to justify why I think this approach is better, you can even super dislike it before I publish if you still feel like that when I present my strongest arguments, or maybe convince me that I am wrong so I dont publish part 2 and make a partial retraction for this post :). There is a decent chance you are right as you are the stronger predictor of the two of us :)
I still think you’re missing my point.
If you’re making ~20 predictions a year, you shouldn’t be doing any funky math to analyse your forecasts. Just go through each one after the fact and decide whether or not the forecast was sensible with the benefit of hindsight.
I think this is exactly my point, if someone doesn’t know what a normal distribution is, maybe they should be looking at their forecasts in a fuzzier way than trying to back fit some model to them.
I disagree that’s all you propose. As I said in an earlier comment, I’m broadly in favour of people making continuous forecasts as they convey more information. You paired your article with what I believe is broadly bad advise around analysing those forecasts. (Especially if we’re talking about a sample of ~20 forecasts)
I would love you as a reviewer of my second post as there I will try to justify why I think this approach is better, you can even super dislike it before I publish if you still feel like that when I present my strongest arguments, or maybe convince me that I am wrong so I dont publish part 2 and make a partial retraction for this post :). There is a decent chance you are right as you are the stronger predictor of the two of us :)
I’d be happy to.
I upvoted all comments in this thread for constructive criticism, response to it, and in the end even agreeing to review each other!