In terms of probabilities, if the crime scene was altered, there’s a pretty good chance it was done by someone who lived in the apartment. Why? Because a resident of the apartment would have an incentive to do so and would have a much better opportunity.
their also stabbing the victim above 1%?
To me, the question is not whether Knox stabbed the victim so much as whether Knox was involved in the murder.
If I own or rent a residence, and one of the residents is killed there, I agree that I expect some suspicion to fall on me.
I don’t agree that I’m therefore very likely to attempt to cover up the crime. In fact, it would be irrational, unless I think the authorities are extremely likely to railroad me out of laziness.
I’d say, if the crime scene was covered up in any way, I’d suspect the perpetrator first.
I read a little more about the case; apparently it was mostly throat-slashing. On the whole, I think it’s crazy to suspect that Knox did the slashing, ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange” (under extreme duress).
There’s a difference between (1) the probability that a resident will attempt to alter or stage the crime scene; and (2) the probability, given that the crime scene was altered or staged, a resident is responsible.
ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange”
Respectfully, I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the evidence against Knox.
True. There’s some physical evidence that can be interpreted as implicating her. I just meant that her prosecution was ultimately caused by a feeling of “her behavior is strange”.
There was a side-discussion in another thread about how it is quite likely Amanda Knox is a sociopath and that could have made the prosecution think she was guilty and explains some of her strange behavior. But, sociopaths are 5-10% of the population and being a sociopath only marginally increases the probability of committing murder.
If you are saying that the police became suspicious of her at the very beginning because her behavior seemed strange, then you may be right. How should this affect our assessment of the probility she is guilty? I would say it depends on exactly what strange behavior you are talking about.
In terms of probabilities, if the crime scene was altered, there’s a pretty good chance it was done by someone who lived in the apartment. Why? Because a resident of the apartment would have an incentive to do so and would have a much better opportunity.
To me, the question is not whether Knox stabbed the victim so much as whether Knox was involved in the murder.
If I own or rent a residence, and one of the residents is killed there, I agree that I expect some suspicion to fall on me.
I don’t agree that I’m therefore very likely to attempt to cover up the crime. In fact, it would be irrational, unless I think the authorities are extremely likely to railroad me out of laziness.
I’d say, if the crime scene was covered up in any way, I’d suspect the perpetrator first.
I read a little more about the case; apparently it was mostly throat-slashing. On the whole, I think it’s crazy to suspect that Knox did the slashing, ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange” (under extreme duress).
There’s a difference between (1) the probability that a resident will attempt to alter or stage the crime scene; and (2) the probability, given that the crime scene was altered or staged, a resident is responsible.
Respectfully, I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the evidence against Knox.
True. There’s some physical evidence that can be interpreted as implicating her. I just meant that her prosecution was ultimately caused by a feeling of “her behavior is strange”.
There was a side-discussion in another thread about how it is quite likely Amanda Knox is a sociopath and that could have made the prosecution think she was guilty and explains some of her strange behavior. But, sociopaths are 5-10% of the population and being a sociopath only marginally increases the probability of committing murder.
If you are saying that the police became suspicious of her at the very beginning because her behavior seemed strange, then you may be right. How should this affect our assessment of the probility she is guilty? I would say it depends on exactly what strange behavior you are talking about.