There’s a difference between (1) the probability that a resident will attempt to alter or stage the crime scene; and (2) the probability, given that the crime scene was altered or staged, a resident is responsible.
ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange”
Respectfully, I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the evidence against Knox.
True. There’s some physical evidence that can be interpreted as implicating her. I just meant that her prosecution was ultimately caused by a feeling of “her behavior is strange”.
There was a side-discussion in another thread about how it is quite likely Amanda Knox is a sociopath and that could have made the prosecution think she was guilty and explains some of her strange behavior. But, sociopaths are 5-10% of the population and being a sociopath only marginally increases the probability of committing murder.
If you are saying that the police became suspicious of her at the very beginning because her behavior seemed strange, then you may be right. How should this affect our assessment of the probility she is guilty? I would say it depends on exactly what strange behavior you are talking about.
There’s a difference between (1) the probability that a resident will attempt to alter or stage the crime scene; and (2) the probability, given that the crime scene was altered or staged, a resident is responsible.
Respectfully, I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the evidence against Knox.
True. There’s some physical evidence that can be interpreted as implicating her. I just meant that her prosecution was ultimately caused by a feeling of “her behavior is strange”.
There was a side-discussion in another thread about how it is quite likely Amanda Knox is a sociopath and that could have made the prosecution think she was guilty and explains some of her strange behavior. But, sociopaths are 5-10% of the population and being a sociopath only marginally increases the probability of committing murder.
If you are saying that the police became suspicious of her at the very beginning because her behavior seemed strange, then you may be right. How should this affect our assessment of the probility she is guilty? I would say it depends on exactly what strange behavior you are talking about.